So, what’s with the current property market? Confused, much?

If you learned how the property market works from a textbook, the last few months would have made no sense at all. Almost every lever that normally moves the market has been pulled…
…but almost none of them have done what they’re supposed to do.

That’s not simply an academic point. If you’re a contractor, freelancer or limited company director thinking about buying, selling or remortgaging, old rules of thumb are poor guides to what happens next.

Three things that should have happened… but haven’t (yet).

Here are the three main anomalies which seem to be going against the grain of conventional wisdom:

Inflation’s above target; the Bank of England should’ve raised the Base Rate

It didn’t.

The Bank held rates at 3.75%, most recently in September, when many other countries raised theirs. Why?

Policymakers appear to be waiting to see whether higher energy prices, driven by conflict in the Middle East, will filter through into wages and underlying prices.

For now, Nationwide’s chief economist points out that private-sector pay growth has stayed modest. This factor has given the Bank some breathing space. But they can’t rest on that particular laurel indefinitely.

House prices are softening, so buyers should be piling in

They aren’t.

Nationwide’s latest figures show annual house price growth halving to 0.8% in September. That’s the weakest the market’s been since December 2025, with prices down 0.2% on the month.

The average home now costs £274,251, which is still ‘up’. But eight of the thirteen UK regions saw annual growth below 1%. Four of those even recorded a tiny decline. Yet cheaper homes haven’t brought buyers back.

Estate agents are reporting a market where people are waiting to see what the Budget brings. They add that realistically priced homes sell, while optimistically priced ones sit.

Lenders should be moving in step with each other

They aren’t doing that, either.

Some lenders have put fixed rates up again this autumn. Barclays and Halifax are among those announcing increases.

Others have been sharpening their pricing in select parts of the market. The result is a patchwork where the best deal for one borrower on one day can look very different a week later.

Why is there so much confusion?

We try to avoid politics as much as we can here at Freelancer Financials. But on this occasion, it’s impossible to ignore.

There’s only one reason for this uncertainty: Trump’s ongoing feud with Iran over the Hormuz Strait and its nuclear program. The standoff has caused oil prices worldwide to spike. And when fuel spikes, it affects every aspect of our daily lives.

Economists don’t know when fuel prices will peak. They still haven’t seen the full effect of the ‘fuel shock’ on domestic and international markets. So, whilst there’s a checkmate in the Middle East, the markets will remain jittery.

Will the US/Iran situation resolve itself soon?

You can take this with a pinch of salt, but Trump has said there’ll be no resolution until after the US midterms. They’ll be held on November the third.

Yes, he’s probably holding out to see if Iran capitulates under the weight of sanctions before then. If they do, he can wave that flag at the US electorate before they go to the polls.

But the likelihood is that’s not going to happen. Iran has been under one sanction or another for the best part of half a century. It’s never capitulated yet. And the fact is, the sanctions aren’t hurting Iran as much as Trump would like to believe.

Trump’s domestic picture also matters. One US poll (CNN/SSRS, 16-17th September, 2026) suggests that twice as many voters disapprove of his leadership as approve.

Fighting that kind of deficit could see Trump and the Republicans lose their congressional majority come early November. Should that happen, it’s likely that the Democrats will immediately stop the war with Iran. We can only hope that the polls are right.

What do the property market contradictions mean for buyers?

The common thread running through these unprecedented anomalies is that the usual cause-and-effect chain has snapped.

Lenders have started pricing in rate rises that the Bank hasn’t yet delivered. Why? Because financial markets expect them to.

Nationwide says those expectations have kept upward pressure on the market rates which underpin mortgage pricing. In other words, borrowing costs have risen without the Bank of England lifting a finger.

But another reason rates are rising has little to do with the Bank of England’s Base Rate. Since mid-September, 2-, 3- and 5-year swap rates have all risen by a smidgen under 10%.

It’s these swap rates that lenders are using as a guide for pricing. So, until they show a marked decline, we can expect mortgage interest rates to keep creeping up.

A market that’s holding its breath

If you’re a would-be buyer, we get that you’re hesitating. A recent Reuters poll of property experts cut its forecast for house price growth this year to just 1.3%. That’s down from the 1.8% Reuters predicted as recently as June.

The poll describes a dynamic, uncertain economic picture that’s stopping people from moving. And to compound matters, renters face steeper increases from landlords.

In London, the poll expects prices to fall by 1.4% this year. Even Barratt Redrow, the country’s biggest housebuilder, has just lowered its completions target. They’re citing cautious buyers and the trending hot political potato right now: planning bottlenecks.

Average two-year and five-year fixed rates are both above 5.9%, according to Moneyfacts. That makes the five-year rate its highest since late 2023. Add a Budget on the horizon, and it’s easy to see why so many people are choosing to wait and see.

The price you pay: waiting isn’t a neutral choice

This is where the picture gets more, how can we put it?, interesting. It’s where we’d urge a little caution about taking any single forecast at face value.

The same sources that paint a gloomy picture for 2026 are cautiously more upbeat about what comes after. One expert in the Reuters poll expects modest price rises to start appearing in 2027. A June survey of sixteen property ‘experts’ even pencilled in growth of around 2.0% for 2027 and 3.3% for 2028.

Nationwide, meanwhile, notes that mortgage affordability should be quietly improving. That’s because house prices have increased less than earnings for some time. Its economist expects activity to regain momentum if the energy shock fades and mortgage rates ease back towards pre-conflict levels.

So, on one hand, we have a market that looks weak today. But we’re also dealing with forecasts that point to a recovery tomorrow.

We’d be the first to admit that’s a mixed message. But mixed messages are precisely what you’d expect when a market stops reacting the way it normally does to outside pressures. Nobody, including the forecasters, can say with confidence which signal will win out.

For buyers, the current uncertainty poses a dilemma.

Hold off, and you may benefit from softer prices. But you could also miss the start of a recovery. And, as one agent put it, every week you stall is another week for a chain to wobble.

Move now, and you’ll be borrowing at today’s higher rates. Remortgaging, though, is a different basket of fruit.

Where remortgaging fits in

So far, we’ve established that fewer people are buying, and you could argue: with good reason. As such, remortgaging has become the more important story for many homeowners. And, thankfully, the argument for acting is easier to make.

The cost-of-living crisis (crises?) continues to put pressure on household finances. We know that homeowners approaching the end of their fixed rate can sometimes arrive with more unsecured commitments than when they first took out their mortgage:

• credit cards,
• overdrafts,
• car finance,
• personal loans, etc.

Over time, those commitments can become difficult to manage, particularly where interest rates are high. And, typically, unsecured finance interest rates are much higher than mortgage rates.

For people approaching the end of their fixed term and juggling debts from multiple sources, a remortgage may present a more manageable solution. We have many clients remortgaging to pay off unsecured debts, either within their current mortgage term or over an extended term.

Restructuring finances like this allows homeowners to consolidate outstanding finance into a single monthly payment. This is often cheaper* and simpler than juggling several repayments across multiple lenders and credit agencies.

In an erratic market, timing matters as much as the rate itself. Fixed rates are moving in both directions. The gap between a good deal and an average one can open up quickly.

Letting a fixed rate expire and rolling onto your lender’s standard variable rate is the one option that rarely makes sense. That’s why we built our Rate Monitoring Remortgage Service.

Can you explain Rate Monitoring to me?

With Rate Monitoring, we can secure a deal up to four to six months before your current one ends. Historically, lenders gave a six-month grace period across the board. But some lenders, Halifax being one, have reigned in that period to just four months.

“So what?” you say. “My lender emails/pings/calls me when my mortgage renewal is coming up, too.”

The difference is, we can tell you proactively if a better one comes along. And not just from your existing lenders, but from across the market. With this wider scope, you’re not relying on ‘timing’ your remortgage. You give yourself the best part of four to six months to make the final commitment.

It also matters who reviews your application. Many contractors and self-employed borrowers don’t fit traditional lenders’ ideas of a standard applicant. A specialist broker can match your income to lenders who understand how you actually earn.

The bottom line

We—and the wider market—can’t tell you whether rates will rise, fall or sit still in the short term. And anyone who claims to be certain right now is simply guessing. What we can say is that the old assumptions aren’t holding, and the cost of waiting isn’t free.

If your fixed rate ends in the next year, or you’re carrying debts that are costing you more than they should, now is a sensible time to find out where you stand. If you’re thinking of buying, the forecasts suggest the market may look different by 2027.

Yes, that’s a reason to be prepared. But it’s not justifiable cause to put your plans entirely on hold.

And we do get it. As we said at the start of this post, the market is sending mixed messages right now. But if you’re unsure what your next move is, pick up the phone. One chat with our brokers will at least outline your options. And even if you don’t act now, they’ll tell you what to watch for so that, when you are ready, you can pull the trigger. Hope that helps.

*Consolidating debts into your mortgage may mean you pay more interest over the term, as you’ll be repaying them over a longer period. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up with your mortgage repayments.